Growing global energy demand underlines need for renewables
5 Dec 11 - Martin McAdam, Chief Executive Officer
Global energy demand continues its inexorable growth, whilst
subsidies for fossil fuels still outstrip renewable energy
support.
These are two of the gloomy findings in the latest World Energy
Outlook, published last month by the International Energy Agency
(IEA).
Global demand for energy grew five per cent in 2010 (despite the
flatlining US and European economies), and future growth will
increasingly be driven by rapidly industrializing economies such as
China, India and Brazil, the influential report says.
Countries outside the OECD group of 34 (largely Western) leading
economies will account for 90 per cent of population growth, 70 per
cent of the increase in economic output and 90 per cent of energy
demand growth over the period from 2010 to 2035, the outlook
predicts.
This mean it will become increasingly challenging for the world to
meet its CO2 reduction targets - without urgent action to
decarbonise the energy supply.
Spiralling demand
The outlook forecasts that China will consolidate its position
as the world's largest energy consumer. By 2035 it will consume
nearly 70 per cent more energy than the United States (number two
on the list), even though its per-capita energy consumption will
still be less than half the level in the United States. The
predicted rates of energy consumption growth in India, Indonesia,
Brazil and the Middle East are even faster than in China.
Despite this, renewable energy is still not being taken seriously.
The outlook shows we are subsidising fossil fuel consumption to the
tune of $406 billion per year. In contrast, the world's subsidy for
renewable energy is languishing at $66bn. If we continue to develop
renewable energy as planned, by 2035 the renewable energy subsidies
will reach a predicted $250bn - still way less than the current
fossil fuel subsidies.
The report expects that renewable energy will be pushed centre
stage. China and the European Union will drive this expansion,
providing nearly half of the growth.
Even though the subsidy cost per unit of output is expected to
decline, most renewable-energy sources will need continued
incentives in order to compete in electricity markets. While this
will be costly - it will cost a lot less than the subsidies that
are currently in place that encourage the world to burn fossil
fuels and it will bring lasting benefits in terms of energy
security and environmental protection.
Read
the IEA outlook executive summary here.